Aluminum prices hit a four-year high due to multiple factors

Views:1052 Author:Site Editor Publish Time:2014-10-23 09:03:14 Orgin:Site

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This week, nonferrous smelting and processing again benefited from the rise of global nonferrous prices and the general rise. Trading limit of Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. Due to the improvement of global supply and demand of non-ferrous stocks, the trend of the central line of non-ferrous stocks is worth looking forward to.

The strong international non-ferrous price is still an important reason for the general rise of non-ferrous stocks. Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at its highest closing price in 2014 on Friday, and remained strong on Monday at 14135 yuan / ton.

The improvement in supply and demand is the main reason for the sharp rise in non-ferrous prices. On the one hand, as the world's largest consumer of non-ferrous resources, China's recent economic data is better than expected, and institutions generally expect that future market demand will gradually improve, and aluminum inventory data will decrease.

Goldman Sachs, an investment bank, last week raised its price expectations for almost all metals and precious metals in the next year, with nickel prices rising by nearly 30% and zinc and aluminum prices rising by more than 10%. The supply and demand of lead, zinc, aluminum and nickel metals did show positive changes, and it is likely to remain strong in the middle line time.

Nonferrous spot prices remain strong, which is conducive to the future growth of nonferrous plate.

Goldman Sachs expects the average price of aluminum to be $1869 / ton this year and to rise to $2150 / ton by 2017

According to the data released by the International Aluminum Industry Association (IAI) on Friday, the global aluminum inventory in August was 2.483 million tons, an increase of 104000 tons compared with July and 224000 tons compared with August 2013.

The following is the inventory details published by IAI: (in kilotons)

Region August 2014 July 2014 August 2013

Africa 76 66 95

North America 664 679 642

South America 234 195

Asia 588 547 465

Europe 848 783 786

Oceania 73 70 76

Total 2483 2379 2259

Since the middle of July, domestic alumina prices have been rising continuously. After entering September, the price rise is even more fierce. The latest spot ex factory price of alumina manufacturers in Henan and Shanxi has reached a four-year high of 3000 yuan / ton, more than 25% higher than that in early July.

The price increase of alumina is mainly affected by the following six factors:

First, domestic demand has increased. In the first half of this year, the annual production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was only 1.04 million tons, accounting for 37.8% of the annual expected production. When the aluminum price fell in the early stage of this year, the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was postponed to the third and fourth quarter. This will undoubtedly continue to increase the demand for alumina in the second half of the year;

Second, the new capacity of alumina is slow to reach the capacity. Corresponding to the centralized production of new electrolytic aluminum capacity in the second half of the year, the annual production capacity of new aluminum oxide in China is only 4.8 million tons in the whole year, and the annual production capacity in the first half of the year is only 900000 tons, while the subsequent production capacity is mostly concentrated in the fourth quarter of this year, which makes the electrolytic aluminum plant prepare goods and purchase raw materials in advance, resulting in the alumina supply tightening in the third quarter;

Third, the production of electrolytic aluminum in China has been cut down and capacity has been restored. After June this year, this has become another driving force for alumina demand. According to statistics, in the third quarter alone, the annual production capacity of domestic re production of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase to over 700000 tons, which directly drives the demand for alumina to over 1.4 million tons per year;

Fourth, the Northwest Aluminum Plant increased procurement. In order to avoid the shortage of train transportation capacity in winter and the peak shift of holiday passenger flow, northwest electrolytic aluminum plant, centered in Xinjiang, began to reserve alumina in September. With the increase of its purchasing power, the demand for alumina is increasing;

Fifthly, the price of aluminum at home and abroad has gradually increased since the end of March this year, while in the case that the long-term contract price of alumina is linked to the price of aluminum in a certain proportion, the synergy of price increase is obvious;

Sixthly, due to Indonesia's ban on the export of bauxite raw ore, the alumina plants in Shandong Province, which use imported ore, have increased the purchase of high-priced bauxite in other regions. In the medium and long term, the production cost of the local alumina plant will be increased to support the alumina price.

To sum up, there is still room for domestic alumina prices to rise under the condition of continuous stock demand and delayed emergence of new supply points.

On September 25, the factory quotation of alumina in Southwest China was more than 2600 yuan / ton, 16.7% higher than that in early July. The local aluminum oxide plant said that it intends to continue to raise the ex factory price under the situation of good demand.

Since the middle of July, domestic alumina prices have been rising continuously. After entering September, the price rise is even more fierce. The latest spot ex factory price of alumina manufacturers in Henan and Shanxi has reached a four-year high of 3000 yuan / ton, more than 25% higher than that in early July.

This month, affected by the continuous rainfall in Henan Province, the No.2 dam of the fifth red mud reservoir in PanYao village, Gaoshan Town, Xingyang City, Henan Province, suffered piping leakage, which resulted in local dam break. Affected by this, Henan Branch of Chalco has suspended 1.6 million T / a alumina production line and the remaining 400000 T / a production line.

It is reported that this week, Chinalco Henan began to resume production of 600000 tons, and the remaining 1 million tons of production capacity is expected to be completed in early October.

At the same time, a large alumina plant in Shanxi Province said that the baking furnace had been overhauled from September 7 to 27. Affected by this, the company's alumina supply decreased by 40000 tons this month. In addition, another alumina plant in Shanxi suffered a safety accident on Thursday, and there is a risk of alumina production falling this month.

Since July, aluminum prices have also started to rise, driven by the rise of LUNI. At the same time, many events mentioned above involving alumina supply show that there is still a tightening trend in domestic alumina supply, thus becoming a "catalyst" for aluminum price rise.

This week, alumina companies with idle capacity, including Lubei chemical and Chongqing bosai, have announced plans to resume production due to the sharp jump in alumina prices. The total output of the above two aluminum oxide plants is expected to reach 1 million tons / year. However, the manufacturer also said that due to the impact of the current ore supply, the earliest time to resume production is from the end of November to December this year.

Liu Xiaolei, an analyst with Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, said the price rise of alumina was affected by multiple factors. First, domestic demand has increased. In the first half of this year, the annual production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was only 1.04 million tons, accounting for 37.8% of the annual expected production. When the aluminum price fell in the early stage of this year, the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was postponed to the third and fourth quarter. This will undoubtedly continue to increase alumina demand in the second half of the year. According to statistics, in the third quarter alone, the annual production capacity of domestic re production of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase to over 700000 tons, which directly drives the demand for alumina to over 1.4 million tons per year. The new capacity of alumina is slow to reach the capacity. Corresponding to the centralized production capacity in the second half of the year, the annual capacity of newly increased aluminum oxide in China is only 4.8 million tons in the whole year, and the annual production capacity in the first half of the year is only 900000 tons, and the subsequent production capacity is mostly concentrated in the fourth quarter of this year, which makes the electrolytic aluminum plant prepare goods and purchase raw materials in advance, resulting in the aluminum oxide supply tightening in the third quarter. In addition, due to Indonesia's ban on the export of bauxite raw ore, the alumina plant in Shandong Province, which uses imported ore, has increased the purchase of high price bauxite in other regions. In the medium and long term, the production cost of the local alumina plant will be increased to support the alumina price.